Mereja Forum

[Aurorae]

If I am reading Abbiy correctly, he is a centrist. He wants a greater Ethiopia. His belief is aligned with the amharas than Oromos. TPLF is exploiting that. He shares a lot of views with Isayas. I hope, he does not have a surprise to Eritrea like some secret deal along the line like long contracts with Eritrean ports. He is visionary, But, his vision may be not shared by many Ethiopians , surely not by the majority of the Oromos. I may be wrong, but he needs to come out and share his vision with the Ethiopian people. If not, the only segment of Ethiopia that can give him a chance over the election are the amhara people. Besides, he is as much amhara as he is Oromo. TPLF knows all this, and I am sure they have surprises for him. Ethiopia is in a bitter cold civil war status. Once the weyane conduct their own election, and how Abby deals with that, would resolve the future.

[Sam Ebalalehu]

There is always a tendency to generalize as Aurorae did here. He has not done it with ill-intent. Not at all. But some corrections are warranted. He wrote Abiy’s “vision may not be shared by many Ethiopians, surely by the majority of Oromos.” That is not a true statement. The majority of Ethiopians support Abiy. First , Ethiopians are not only Amharas and Oromos. Those two might make around sixty percent of Ethiopians. That means there are forty percent of Ethiopians who are not Amharas or Oromos. Abiy has the majority ‘s support in those ethnic groups. Those choose Abiy over TPLF , OLF and Ayatollah Jawar.
The Amharas even after some of their own capitulated to tribal politics, they still managed to stay away from it. They are overwhelmingly support Abiy over any tribal party.
What about the Oromos. Surprise ! The majority of them support Abiy. If OLA has the support of the majority of Oromos, it would not have barricaded just only in Wellega. Like we keep arguing if TPLF has the majority of Ethiopians support it does not need to self imprison itself in Mekele.
Why the Abiy’s vision of creating a strong Ethiopia had assembled enemies ? Because any new vision could not come easily. No smooth sailing. Those who hate that vision would make their last stand to the very end.
For a considerable time Abiy seemed to have been hesitant to use force and the rule of law to fight off the tribal politicians who make a living inciting Ethiopians against Ethiopians. His choosing to make politics by dialogue has not been welcomed by tribal politicians. Stripped off their slogans however tribal politicians have nothing new to offer.
No, if elections are held today Abiy overwhelmingly beats the tribal politicians of every stripes combined. They know it , and Ethiopians know it as well.
No , contrary to the tribal politicians disinformation Abiy has the support of the majority of Ethiopians.

[Zreal]

Abby needs to come out if he wants to be re-elected

re-elected???? That must be the joke of the century. He has 0% chance to be re-elected.

His only hope to remain as PM is to be come a dictator!!

[Aurorae]

Sam,

I like your numbers. But, remember, the central issue is that he tends to be centralist. He wants Ethiopia divided by zones similar to Eritrea, rather than ethnic enclaves. Amharas would love that, the majority of Oromos are radically, against it. Between Amhara and Oromos, 60% is a lot. I have to admit, I don't know how Ethiopian popular demography falls. For instance, how the Somalis/Ogadenis view Ethnic federation, etc.... Surely, I am not saying Abiy is going to lose. However, he is becoming as much secretive as Isayas is. I can understand Isayas, but, why didn't Abiy share with the parliament what he signed with Isayas. Is it so much in Ethiopian favor that, the parliament failed to criticize him. Isn't that part of their main job ?

[Sam Ebalalehu]

Aurorae, I have lived out of Ethiopia for several decades now. If social media had not been existed, I would have been totally clueless about Ethiopian politics. Despite the limitation I implied however I do know this : there are Ethiopians who want the TPLF engineered kind of Ethiopian politics. And there are Ethiopians who believe killel based on geography , not ethnicity is the way to go. Abiy inherited this contradictions. Abiy cannot choose one, and Ethiopians should follow. There should be a sincere dialogue, and he should be part of that dialogue. But there are political actors who by nature are anti democratic. They hate political discussion. They roam in one tiny part of Oromia and make living there a hell.
There is an American educated Ayatollah who spews hate on OMN television nonstop. There are Mekele politicians who act as an enemy from within.
On top of that Abiy has seemed to have been sensitive to the criticism of the West, and that made his indecision worse.
His middle of the road approach to politics whether it is his choice or imposed on him remains debatable.
One thing is for sure though : there are many actors in Ethiopian politics. Abiy has no a magic power to get what he wants. To get what he wants , he should get the trust and support of the great majority of Ethiopians.
Compared to his however is the tribal politicians support among Ethiopians is minuscule.
Not a single tribal politician appeals to Ethiopians at large as he does.

[Aurorae]

Sam,

I am like you. I left home as a teenager. I do agree with what you wrote. Abiy has a lot to do. You are right. As a single individual, he is more appealing to Ethiopians. I wish you good luck. Trust me, our problems are worse than yours. Wish us good.