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Axumezana
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The Final Push of Egypt to Secure Zero-Sum Water Share Agreement with a “Destabilized Ethiopia”!

Post by Axumezana » 28 Jun 2020, 22:36

The Final Push of Egypt to Secure Zero-Sum Water Share Agreement
with a “Destabilized Ethiopia”!

After Egypt’s failure to integrate Eritrea to its territories by the end of the second world war, due to Emperor Haile
Selassie’s superior diplomatic skills, the then Egyptian Pan- Arab nationalistic President Nasser’s government
turned to ethnic and religious subversion against Ethiopia. In 1955 Egypt began working for the instigation of an
“Arab” revolution in the then autonomous Ethiopian province Eritrea, to that effect, hundreds of young Muslims
from Eritrea were invited to Cairo to study and enjoy special benefits. Though, the Muslims from Eritrea were not
native Arabic speakers they absorbed the spirit of Arab revolution and adopted a modern Arab identity.
Furthermore, these Eritreans Muslims were trained how to set up a modern guerrilla ‘liberation front’ and
established the Eritrean Liberation Front (ELF) in 1959 with the support of Egypt and an Algerian Islamic
movement. Thereafter, the ELF launched an open anti-Ethiopian revolt in Eritrea in 1961, claiming and
propagating a fake Arab Eritrean identity “The Arabism of the Eritrean People”.
To promote Eritrea’s liberation from Ethiopia, Nasser also helped local Eritrean Christian Tigrayans who resisted
reunification with Ethiopia. In 1955, the prominent leader of Christian Tigrayans in Eritrea, WaldeAb
Welde Mariam, was invited to broadcast daily anti-Ethiopian propaganda on Radio Cairo and the Nasserist
regime and subsequent Egyptian governments remained the main pillar of support for the Eritrean separatist
movement.
The myth of Eritrea’s Arabism, adopted and advanced by Eritrean Muslims, was to survive until 1980’s and the
war in Eritrea that was instigated by Egypt lasted 30 years and caused untold human and financial losses both
to Ethiopia and Eritrea. As of today, Eritrea has been a de facto colony of Egypt and has been used as a proxy
war front against Ethiopia and it has been also the command post of those Egypt funded Ethiopian political
groups who opted to ally with Egypt or Eritrea to destabilize Ethiopia. In a new development both the Eritrean
government and the Ethiopian political groups who resided in Eritrea have been making peace with Ethiopia but
how they will free themselves from Egypt’s standing agenda of “destabilizing Ethiopia” is yet to be seen. I doubt
if this new development was possible without the blessing of Egypt and it could be an indication of a new covert
intrusive strategy of Egypt to control Ethiopia.
No less significant was the Nasserist influence on the Somali nationalists and starting in the mid-1950s Nasserist
agents worked to enhance the anti-Ethiopian dimension of Somali nationalism branded it as “Greater Somalia”.
The Somalis encouraged by the potential Egypt backing claimed about one-third of Ethiopia’s territory and fought
two unsuccessful wars that subsequently resulted in the disintegration of Somalia. The disintegration of Somalia
and the subsequent civil war which has caused the scatter of Somalis throughout the world and death of millions
of Somalis by war and famine and wastage of decades of nation building opportunity was a by-product of the
failed Egypt destabilization strategy of Ethiopia using Somalia as its proxy.
Similarly, after Egypt failed to stop the British from allowing Sudan to declare its independence from Egypt in
1956, it has been constantly interfering into the internal affairs of Sudan including the Sudanese army staged
coup d’état in November 1958, overthrowing the civilian government of Abdullah Khalil which had
uncompromised and hard negotiation position on the interest of Sudan on the Nile river, in which Egypt friendly
Gen. Ibrahim Abboud led the new military Sudan government.
The 1959 Nile water share agreement signed between Egypt and Sudan which gave the lion share to Egypt
(78% to Egypt and 22% to Sudan on the net annual flow after deducting 10 billion cubic meters for evaporation
loss) was signed with the Egypt friendly Sudan President Gen. Ibrahim Abboud. Considering, the flow measuring
point is deep in Egypt at the Aswan High dam and the annual hypothetical evaporation loss of 10 billion cubic
meters, the share for Sudan is substantially lower than 22%. However, If the water share allocation was done
considering “population size and arable land area” as factors, Sudan’s share should have been not less than
40%.
It is my expectation and I am confident that the new PM of Ethiopia will not make same mistake as Gen.
Ibrahim Abboud of Sudan!!!
Though Egypt opposed the split of South Sudan from Sudan during the pre-independence war period, currently
it is the main sponsor of the undemocratic and corrupt President Kiir government and is prolonging the suffering
of the South Sudan people with the objective of getting a foothold near to Ethiopian border to sabotage Ethiopia
and possibly to resurrect its aborted project of digging the Jonglei Canal in South Sudan.
Therefore, due to Egypt’s standing strategy of securing the lion share of the water from the Nile river( under the
pretext of ensuring water security) at the expense of more than 300 million people around the Horn of Africa, it
has been obsessed in sabotaging the peace and stability of Ethiopia and Sudan for more than 50 years and as
the result the whole of Horn/East of Africa has been unstable and remained as one of the poorest regions in the
world and major source of migrants to Europe , USA and elsewhere. Since the mid of 20th century, the Horn
Africa has witnessed the death of millions of people, aggravation of poverty and wastage of scarce billions of
dollars for a war that could have been used for development due to the behind the curtain destabilizing activities
of Egypt
However, the Zero-Sum game that has been played by Egypt to ensure its water security has become
unsustainable, out of dated and irrelevant for the following reasons:
Creating jobs and feeding the rapidly growing population in the Horn of Africa and in the countries of the
Nile Basin demands governments to generate power for industrialization and to transform traditional farming
to mechanized irrigated farming to produce sufficient food to ensure food security which requires more
consumption of water. The domestic consumption of water also increases in proportion to the population
growth.
The Aswan High dam only stores one-year flow of the Nile water, whereas, global warming and other
unpredictable climate changes could result in a drought that lasts to the biblical-proportion of up to seven
years. In that case, the Aswan dam could dry with unimaginable consequences on Egypt’s 100 million &
growing population and makes Egypt’s current water security strategy null and void.
The growing population of Egypt also requires more water than the storage capacity of the High Aswan
dam. That necessitates the construction of additional reservoir dams either in Ethiopia and/or Sudan (building
additional dam in Egypt looks not practical).
The Aswan high dam may be filled by silt within the next 300 to 500 years. How will Egypt manage such
unavoidable fact with a huge population that is 95% dependent on the Nile water??? It is important to
note that, dams built in Ethiopia prolong the service life of the Aswan dam by reducing the silt that goes
from Ethiopia.
Considering the above points, it is obvious that Egyptian water security strategists, hydrology experts
and the Egyptians government covertly want the construction of more dams (reservoirs) in Sudan and
Ethiopia as far as their so-called historical share is not significantly affected. They also know that dams
built in Ethiopia along the deep Abay River gorge could only be mainly used for hydroelectric power
generation with lower evaporation loss and lower construction cost per volume.
Egyptians are also considering other sources of water such us linking the Congo River with the White Nile and
digging the Jonglei Canal in South Sudan which are good ideas but difficult to implement. However, If Egypt
succeeds to dig the Jonglei Canal or /and connect the White Nile with the Congo river, the construction of
cascade of dams on the Abay river is mandatory to regulate its flow and avoid flooding of Khartoum, other Sudan
territories and Egypt.
Therefore, Egypt’s strategy of sustaining its water security through sabotaging and destabilizing
Ethiopia and Sudan is no more a relevant strategy as Egypt needs more water reservoirs to be built both
in Sudan and Ethiopia for sustaining its water security and cater for its growing population. Hence, to
sustain Egypt’s water security, storing water in the deep Abay gorge is the most attractive option as it
could store more water at lower cost and less evaporation loss. However, Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt
should negotiate and agree on a win-win water share tripartite and bilateral agreements on how to
equitably benefit from the Abay river.
Whatever plot that Egypt may try to sabotage and destabilize the main water supplier to the Nile “Ethiopia “and
the main potential Nile water Consumer” Sudan” may not be effective now and in the future as Egypt is
economically weak and facing serious external and internal geopolitical threats and the international community
is also expected to put pressure on Egypt to abandon its bad habits of destabilizing the Horn of Africa and seek
for a negotiated solution. In addition, the main neighbors of Ethiopia, including Eritrea and Somalia, that Egypt
had been historically using as a proxy to destabilize Ethiopia are currently making peace with Ethiopia, most
likely as they are fully aware of the consequences of being manipulated and used by Egypt to conspire against
their strategic neighbor.
However, as a negotiating tactic, Egypt has been blackmailing the GERD and is launching a fierce
diplomatic offensive to directly or indirectly pressurize Ethiopia, through the Middle East countries, USA,
UN, The Arab League etc., with the objective of signing a water sharing agreement with Ethiopia that
legitimizes Egypt’s claim of so-called historic rights.
The objective of this article is to forward some ideas for the Ethiopian government that could be used for the
negotiation with Egypt as illustrated below:
The Negotiation with Egypt must consider the following points:
• As discussed above, the Egyptians badly need the construction of dams in Ethiopia as far as there is an
agreement that protects their interest (this is a driver for win-win negotiation).
• Population growth
o By the year 2050 and 2100 the population of Ethiopia will reach 190m and 240m respectively. Hence,
any water share agreement should consider such future population growth
• The economic value of the water flowing to Sudan and Egypt:
o As of today, the annual flow of water from Ethiopia’s all rivers to South Sudan and to Sudan is
estimated to be 73 billion Cubic meters. Assuming ocean water salination cost is USD 0.40 per Cubic
meter (this is the current lowest cost according to new salination plants build by Israel) and assuming
25% of salination cost to be the price of each cubic meter of water flowing out of Ethiopia, the annual
price of the total water out of Ethiopia is: USD 0.40/ cubic meters X 25% X 73 billion cubic meter =
USD 7.3 billion per year
o Similarly, the annual flow of the Abay (Blue Nile) river to Sudan is about 53 billion cubic meters. Based
on the above assumptions the economic value of the Abay river to both Sudan and Egypt is: USD
0.40/ cubic meter X 25% X 53 billion cubic meter = USD 5.3 billion per year
o Assuming Ethiopia is willing to share 50% of the annual flow free of charge to both Sudan and Egypt
(based on the principles of equitable usage of water), Ethiopia could charge both Sudan and Egypt
USD3.65 billion per year for all the water flows to the Nile. Considering Egypt share is 78%( as per
Egypt and Sudan agreement), Ethiopia could demand Egypt to pay Ethiopia about USD 3 billion per
year.
o Egypt that generates annually about USD 6 billion from Suez Canal, USD 13 billion from tourism and
USD 30 billion from its agricultural sector is capable and should be willing to compenetrate Ethiopia
in order to sustain its water security in a win-win manner.
• Egypt wants Ethiopia to curtail its population growth and continue with the existing unsustainable rain fed
agriculture instead of irrigated agriculture (these conditions should not be accepted by Ethiopia). Considering
the erratic nature of rainfall, mechanized irrigated agriculture is the only viable option for Ethiopia’s future
food security. Hence, Ethiopia must secure its right to use the water from Abay river not only for Electric
generation but for agricultural production.
• Egypt is also trying to unreasonably prolong the filling of GERD so that Ethiopia could not timely benefit from
the dam and that must be resisted by Ethiopia. Filling of the dam is purely technical and three measurable
scenarios could be agreed based on the forecasted rain in the Ethiopian high lands.
• Egypt is trying to hide the water share agreement in the “dam operation agreement”. It has been
reported in the media that Egypt is proposing to Ethiopia to guarantee the GERD to release minimum 40
billion Cubic meter volume of water per year (volume to be measured at the Aswan dam in Egypt). This
proposal is impractical, and Egypt is trying to deny the today and future Ethiopia’s generation their right to
use the Abay river for agricultural production, which should not be accepted considering the future population
growth of Ethiopia and as it contradicts water sharing international principles. I would like to emphasize this
issue to the Prime Minister of Ethiopia so that he will not make any compromise on this issue and avoid the
enslavement of Ethiopia’s future generation by Egypt.
• It is recommended to benchmark Turkey water share agreements and experience with its neighbors on Tigris
and the Euphrates rivers.
• Any agreement with Sudan and Egypt:
o Should have political, economic, social, technical and environmental dimensions and must be
comprehensive enough to cover all aspects.
o Should be conditional to both countries committing that they will not be directly or indirectly involved
on any activity that destabilizes or harms the interests of Ethiopia such as security, economy and
political interests.
o Ethiopia should be economically compensated for the water flowing to both Egypt and Sudan.
o Any agreed volume to be shared to Sudan and Egypt should be measured within the territory of
Ethiopia.
o Should have exit provisions that enables agreed parties to revoke the agreement at any time
based on defined events of defaults.
o Should have specified time span and expiry date (it should not be more than 25 years). This
allows all parties to renegotiate new agreement (from zero draft) every 25 years.
o Egypt must abandon its claim of zero-sum historic rights
o Ethiopia’s sovereignty over its rivers in its territory and its right to build cascade of dams over its rivers
and to use the water for irrigated farming, without significant harm to Sudan and Egypt, should not be
compromised.
o Egypt and Sudan must enter to a binding agreement to buy electric power from Ethiopia at
international market rates with forecasted escalation rates.
o As beneficiaries from the water from the Ethiopian dams(reservoirs) both Sudan and Egypt must
contribute up to 50% of the dam construction cost (assuming Ethiopia will give them 50% the water
flows to Sudan free of charge).
o Must be openly communicated to the people of Ethiopia and ratified by the parliament. The
fact that the agreements/understandings signed between the Ethiopian and Eritrean
government were not discussed and ratified by the parliament of Ethiopia gives me a concern
on how the Ethiopian government is handling and is going to handle the agreement with Egypt
and Sudan.
• The Ethiopian government should resist any attempt by Egypt, USA or any party to pressurize
Ethiopia to agree on one-sided water share agreement in a rushed manner sweetened with a onetime monetary incentive from World Bank and the USA treasury.
• If Egypt is requesting for prolonged filling of the dam and one-sided water share agreement without exit
clause and termination period, there is no any incentive for Ethiopia to rush for an agreement while it is facing
Egypt induced internal instabilities and with weak negotiation position. Ultimately, Ethiopia may consider or
will be forced to delay the negotiation process.
• Ethiopia must resist to reach an agreement on piece by piece basis. Any agreed issues must be conditional
to reaching comprehensive final agreement as outlined above.

I recommend the following structure for the agreement:
o Part 1: GERD Filling Agreement- to be finalized as soon as possible
o Part 2: GERD Temporary Operating Agreement- to be finalized with Part 1 agreement
o Part 3: Water Share and Operating Agreement which replaces Part 2 agreement- a permanent
comprehensive and win- win agreement with an exit clause and expiration date that must be renegotiated
from zero draft every 25 years – to be agreed within the next three to five years.

God Bless the People of Horn Africa and Egypt!
T

Ethoash
Senior Member+
Posts: 23918
Joined: 20 Apr 2013, 20:24

Re: The Final Push of Egypt to Secure Zero-Sum Water Share Agreement with a “Destabilized Ethiopia”!

Post by Ethoash » 29 Jun 2020, 08:05

Axumezana

i did not finished your long interesting blog...based on what i scanned

king haile should have build hydropower in all other river while waiting his time to build Nile dam... if Ethiopia escaped from poverty Egypt could not have done this all damaged ..

to be fair what would u do if u were Egypt if the Amhara lead government telling u Nile river is 100% theirs and tell you they have the right to block u.. u have to do what u have to do to stop Ethiopians.. in Eritrean case had king haile did not cancel the fed. system we would have been one counties up to now .. even with Egypt push.. to stop ELF respect the Muslim right end of story..

then the idiot Haile Mariam Mengistu waging full scale war with Egypt Eritrea ... u know how it ended...

then the smart kid Meles come and told Egypt we going to share the water and we going to build Nile dam .. the talk started and ten years we talk endlessly ..so Meles knowns the Egypt interest is endless talk so Meles start the dam.. everything stop there and now the issue become filling time

mind u what Ethiopia saying is out of 100% water we going to fill 4.9% water are the Egypt telling us to fill this 4.9% water in 21 years or ten years .. when the 4.9% water could be filled with the next rainy season.. if Dr. Abiy miss this dead line we r already defeated... Ethiopia should be smart when it come to this kind of idiot question .. all Ethiopia should say is Egypt should stop their 60 billion dollar new city that consume more water then what Nile dam need..or pay us one billion dollar for every year they delay us... otherwise what incentive does Egypt have to end the talk if we r not filling the dam until the talk is over .. they will keep talking for next 100 years without end and we will never fill the dam hence we should ask one billion dollar opportunity lost cost or we going to fill the dam they like it or not we r not filling the whole dam only 5% the dam they could handle it .. otherwise what is the point of having Asswan dam

if they ask us not to hold water then we should ask them Asswan dam should not release the water when it filled up to the top it will destroy it self .. hence they will not agree with this agreement hence they will be forced to say no and we will say u see we did not say no to agreement Egypt is the one who say no

selling electric to Egypt should be banned forever.. we should not forget what they did to us... selling raw electricity is like selling raw green coffee.. we lose money by selling raw electricity instead we should tell Egyptian to come to Ethiopia and produce what every they want this way they will hire Ethiopian and pay Ethiopian tax and develop Ethiopia and they sell the end product ten time over then selling them raw electric

why i telling u they should come to Ethiopia not because i want them to come ... when u deny them export of electricity u sweeten them by telling them the door is open to come to Ethiopia .. making them sign agreement to take electricity at set price is benefit them million time over ..they will buy the whole Nile dam electric power if need be that would be our greatest mistake .... in future the electric price fetch the highest price everything will be run by green power ...at that time we could sell them 100 time over the set price we agree so no agreement on future price..

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