Mereja Forum

[Abaymado]

We know that the amara region awake after things are blown apart; and we are advising to be ready.
This piece is taken from Tigriaonline written by Brehane Kahasay. Among all, the following interested me.

“
In October 2019, as part of Abiy’s vendetta against Tigrai, a delegation of 15 Ambassadors from Asia Pacific countries, who were on a visit to Mekelle, were also instructed to abort their stay and return to the capital. Abiy has now raised- the-ante and seems to be determined to continue with his agenda against Tigrai until he secures a submission from the TPLF. Of late, Abiy summoned Tigrian business men and told them that if the TPLF doesn’t change tack, he would bring Tigrai to its knees by authorising the disruptions of banking, telephone & electricity supplies, daily flights and blocking arteries including the road leading to Djibouti. EFFORT is likely to be the next target. So, what can the TPLF do to circumvent Abiy’s ultimatums?

Option 1

TPLF could give-in to Abiy and join PP; the threat may be removed because of the climb-down but its political relevance in Tigrai will certainly come to an end. TPLF has time and again labelled the Prosperity Party as a unitarian outfit, and to join this party under duress, would be a betrayal of the valour Tigrians who fought for 17 years to build ae federal system that the nations, nationalities and peoples’ of Ethiopia have been enjoying since 1992.

Option 2

To request a modification of PP’s political programmes and make it acceptable for the TPLF to join in without alienating its constituency.



Option 3

To compel Abiy to back track by raising the stakes; this can be realised by coordinating federalist forces who are prepared to pay the price if necessary and challenge Abiy’s dictatorial rule head-on. Abiy believes that because he has the support of the US and Arab states, he is at liberty to do whatever he chooses including bullying, black-mailing, and use of brute force to get his way. It is in now high time for the exponents federalism especially the Oromo to strike an urgent alliance with others of similar persuasions and alleviate the country from the precarious positions she finds herself in. But most importantly, they should jointly prepare for the next general election and ensure the tyrant, who is threatening to rig the election, is comprehensively defeated. Winning the next general election would also be considered as a vote of confidence on federalism and the final rejection of chauvinist instigated Unitarianism.

Option 4

Surely, the TPLF can’t just sit and wait whilst Abiy and the chauvinists contrive to destroy Tigrai; it is therefore, legitimate to retaliate in kind and reinforce its standing by forcing Abiy to the negotiating table. For a starter, invading parts of Amhara and remain in occupation until the resolution of the stand-off should be seriously considered. It is also justifiable to have sleeping cells in the capital that could be activated to strike at selected targets including Addis’s water reservoir in Legedadi. Federal army interference is possible, but this is likely to immerse the country in a morass from which it would not be able to disentangle herself. The situation could also be intensified by the involvement of Eritrea where the leader of the Red Sea state is on the record for saying that a weak and vulnerable Ethiopia is in Eritrea’s interest.

Option 5

Article 39 can be invoked without resorting to the above options. This is an attractive proposition which seems to have received tremendous attention from Tigrians of all walks of life. For this option to have a realistic chance of success, the groundwork including economic transformation and immediate political liberalisation must be accomplished. The rule of law, accountability, good governance, political pluralism and intolerance to corruption and networking must be the norms. Short of this is likely to lead to a massive upheaval that could interrupt the peace and unity in Tigrai making it harder to consider secession in the immediate future. Moreover, territorial disputes with Eritrea and neighbouring Amhara region must also be resolved so that the peace and stability in Tigrai which are the prerequisites for economic development and political diversity can be maintained.

In the long run the best option for Tigrai is secession, but for now the TPLF and other political parties operating in Tigrai should aim for confederation where political power is vested in the sovereign regional states. Tigrai, with its rich and varied history is ahead of the rest; if it were to go it alone, it would be in a pole position to bring qualitative socio-economic transformation in a short time.”

[Abere]

None of the above options will work- they are all failing strategies.Without any doubt, TPLF has already reached a dead end.

[tlel]

Bezih hulu, bezu yetewesasebu neger alu. Sintochu nachew mann manin yemiyamnew? Bezu variable yehone neger niw (awko yetederege yetewesasebe silehone chirawen yemayeyaz neger niw ahun ageritu lai yalew) ye wist mistir yemiyawkew be Poletika wist kirb yehonu bicha niw. Egna mela mit bicha niw yeminisetew. Tplf bishenef tiru niw gin keza behualas? kilil/zeregnet endet niw yemifetaw? Beteley demo Odp wist yalu alamachewes mindin niw? enezih hulu metawek alebet. Honom kerem, kenezih poletikegnoch huala (odp/tplf) hail ale ageritu ketita endatiramed. lezih hulu mastemamegna, ityopianoch yerasachew yehone aand neger ke mengist wech linorachew yigebal. Lemin, bahunu ye poletika huneta bego yemiyaseb ena yemayaseb ale endewem, more bego yemayasib bemelaw ageritu sefnual. Betechemarim, tplf ketewegede behuala, lela askefi phase limeta yichilal minim astemamagn neger yelem. Andu group, enen aynegagnem sil nege erasu betu yinkuakual.

[Tog Wajale]