Mereja Forum

[Deqi-Arawit]

Every country in the third world is in the sphere of influence of a major country. Most of Often, the country which shakes and moves world:s events happens to be America and America treat its allies or its satellite states on the base of A client, B client,C client and D clients. A client are the remaining 4 Anglo Saxon countries or the five eyes as they are commonly known. These countries are the United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand and Canada. The United States treat these countries as family members and offer them The best and the state of the art weapons, unconditional political support and Shares intelligences which is not shared with other countries. Due to strong Jewish Lobby AIPAC, though it is not member of the five eyes, Israel could also be considered part of the five eyes. B clients are the remaining NATO member countries. C clients are Wealthy Arab countries of the Gulf, Jordan and Egypt. The US sell them weapons which are modified and can't poses any threat to state of Israel. (The arabs can't do nothing with modern weaponry any way.

Last but not least,there are D clients or the [ deleted ] clients. a typical D client was Wayne Lead Ethiopia, Despite Ethiopian blood was shed In Somalia to pursue American national interest, The woyane [ deleted ] was not offered best weapons or capacity building of its military except the basic sniper training. The only thing they got was American donated Wheat and of course political support when they faced Eritrea.

You might wonder why I bring the above clarification.That is because I have always advocated in this forum a country should at least request to be categorized as a C client instead of been categorized as failed banana republic which should be content of having a donated wheat or outdated weaponary.

Dr Abiye Ahmed, to my admiration and bewilderment have done that. He requested to procure the fellowing order from France. That is A clients armament.

6 H-225 Transport helicopters
6 multi role attack helicopter of the type H-125 AND H-145
2 Multirole Transport airplane of the type Airbus c295
6 Tiger multi role attach helicopter
12 multirole attach aircraft of the type Mirage 2000 or the Rafale
4 strategic unmanned air vehicles
One battery of strategic air defense missile system
3 active ground based jamming system.

For a country which is in short of hard currency and economic upheaval This is huge investment. But his shopping spree didn't stop there, He also dispatched more than 1000 Ethiopian Sailors to Russia for training. I could buy the argument that Ethiopia should have the best of the best to build its Renaissance dam in peace and to make Egyptians to think twice before they come with a stupid idea to bomb the hidese dam. But what is the intention of the navy? Does Ethiopia really needs a navy when it has only 11 commercial ships? or Perhaps, the PM is waiting in patience and big smile in his face to surprise us Eritreans?

Me As Deqi-Arawit is suspicious of the intention of the PM Abiye, and my suspicious is not unfounded but it is based on merit and facts. When The Agames tried to appease and make peace with Amhara, Eritreans were used as sacrificing lamb just the same way Abraham tried to sacrify Issak to appease God, and all of a sudden, the Agames become super duper Ethiopian nationalists and vanguard of the nation. And what kind of insurance do Eritreans have if Dr Abiye want to play the nationalistic card to galvanize the fragmented Ethiopians by declaring war in the Assab Flank?

Wedi Medhin Berad is a stupid and a clown leader who just repeat the same failed routine over and over again by sticking with only few allies while Dr Abiye, to his credit is diversifying his friends and allies and hedging his position both domestically and internationally. And wedi Medhin Berad supporters are ejaculating and having multiple [ deleted ] to witness Ethiopian cultural group in the land of Eritrea than to foresee the imminent threat.

His supreme eminence Deqi-Arawit The great.

[Misraq]

50% of your analysis is to the point while 50% of it missed the target in a huge margin. See my peer review below for your your desertation

What you are right
Abiy thinks strategically and he seems 10 or 15 years ahead. My assessment is that he had studied Menilik very well and doing exactly that. His interest on technology (latest and bleeding edge) makes it look like he is following menlik. Menlik did exactly. Imported telegrams, automobiles, train, cinema, postal service, hotel....etc when the country or his home grown opponents were not ready. Abiy once said in a speech made at the palace the following. "The wisdom that exists in this palace ceased to exist for a long time and we don't have that wisdom now". This angered many folks at the time. My take on this is Abiy wants to dominate East Africa militarily, economically and technologically.

What you are wrong
Abiy has no desire to harm Eritrea. Neither Abiy, nor Ethiopians harbour grudge on Eritrea. It has become clear to Ethiopians that the chronic desease for the country is weyane-tigray. The contempt Ethiopians have for tplf and Tigray is so much, Eritrea is seen now as a blessed friendly nation. So there is no parameters or justifiable reasons to harm Eritrea. People now learnt that they are coned by weyanne on the badme war. Therefore Abiy will have difficult time to convince people if he wants war with etitrea

[Deqi-Arawit]

50% of your analysis is to the point while 50% of it missed the target in a huge margin. See my peer review below for your your desertation

What you are right
Abiy thinks strategically and he seems 10 or 15 years ahead. My assessment is that he had studied Menilik very well and doing exactly that. His interest on technology (latest and bleeding edge) makes it look like he is following menlik. Menlik did exactly. Imported telegrams, automobiles, train, cinema, postal service, hotel....etc when the country or his home grown opponents were not ready. Abiy once said in a speech made at the palace the following. "The wisdom that exists in this palace ceased to exist for a long time and we don't have that wisdom now". This angered many folks at the time. My take on this is Abiy wants to dominate East Africa militarily, economically and technologically.

What you are wrong
Abiy has no desire to harm Eritrea. Neither Abiy, nor Ethiopians harbour grudge on Eritrea. It has become clear to Ethiopians that the chronic desease for the country is weyane-tigray. The contempt Ethiopians have for tplf and Tigray is so much, Eritrea is seen now as a blessed friendly nation. So there is no parameters or justifiable reasons to harm Eritrea. People now learnt that they are coned by weyanne on the badme war. Therefore Abiy will have difficult time to convince people if he wants war with etitrea

Fair enough. Lets assume you are right and I am wrong. Logic states that countries increase their military budget on the base of their economic growth.If we look at china for instance, it only starts to increase its Military budget after it meet basic needs of its citizens and alleviated more than 300 million people out of poverty. In Dr Abiyes case, You can't just borrow money from the IMF or the world bank and enrich French arm manufactures while you debt trap and kill the current and future generation of Ethiopians. How does dr Abiye think to grow wealth and create economic opportunity for every Ethiopians and have enough budget to cover the cost of all his ambition?

[info]

I agree with Misraq in that PM Abiy do not have anything against Eritrea. The Ethio-Eritrean case is no more about a military might but a legal case already. Even if Ethiopia manages to military occupy Assab, there is no way it can legally make it its own and by that there will be no way to use it as a commercial port. It is clear for any half sane Ethiopian leadership that the Ethio-Eritrean border is sealed and whether you love him or hate him PIA have achieved this very crucial fact for Eritrea. If the border were not demarcated, a possible changing of territories by force would may be an option but as it stands now the case is closed.

The intended purchase of weapons from France, especially the 6k range missile, is I think targeted at warning Egypt. May be that is also the reason they leaked it to the media to send a clear message to Egypt. This whole thing may be a psychological game of Abiy playing on Egypt. In fact just few days ago, Egypt's el-sisi said war is not a solution for the Nile water disagreement. It looks like the psychological war is bearing some fruits.

PM Abiy has a different view of this position than most of his predecessors. He sees his PM position not so much as political leadership but as a call from God. He thinks he has a special call from God to "make Ethiopia great again". This may sound delusional but he deeply believes that he is the chosen one to make Ethiopia strong in every sector including the military, economy, science etc. He wants to leave a legacy on a par with Menilik II & co. How he sees his call explains some of his "grandiose" steps he is making. In my view this has to do with his personal vision than Eritrea.

Normally leaders with this kind of sense of call become dumb and delusional. To his credit, Abiy seems to be also wise. He has surrounded himself with more than 40 young Ethiopian advisers he gathered from local and different western universities (many people don't know this fact). He has convinced the west that the interests of the west and Ethiopia is one and the same. According to Abiy, IMF and World bank have increased their monetary support by over 700% since he came to power. He cut the very hand of TPLF, i.e. EPRDF and is now in remaking it in "his own image", away from the backward revolutionary democracy and toxic tribalism to his idea of medemer and western ideals of democracy. Unlike the old TPLF regime, he has convinced many capable Ethiopian professionals, journalists, businessmen etc. to join and help him in his endeavour. One extra plus for him is that he is a workaholics. He works 7 days a week to achieve his vision. The pace how he is implementing his vision is astonishing for any sane person to see.

I understand when Eritreans be worried about any Ethiopian leader but the new society is completely different and is focused on business, business and business. No one has an appetite to go to war. When I was in Addis, I witnessed how the new generation was so focused on business and entrepreneurship. The one thing PM Abiy hates the most seems Meles and the old TPLF guard. He made sure that TPLF is excluded from the new party by all means. He just can't stand them. That is by now clear for everyone!

Fair enough. Lets assume you are right and I am wrong. Logic states that countries increase their military budget on the base of their economic growth.If we look at china for instance, it only starts to increase its Military budget after it meet basic needs of its citizens and alleviated more than 300 million people out of poverty. In Dr Abiyes case, You can't just borrow money from the IMF or the world bank and enrich French arm manufactures while you debt trap and kill the current and future generation of Ethiopians. How does dr Abiye think to grow wealth and create economic opportunity for every Ethiopians and have enough budget to cover the cost of all his ambition?

[DefendTheTruth]

The whole philosophical guide lines of his leadership is based on cooperative coexistence instead of competitive zero sum game among the stakeholders and why should he tend to espouse an idea of backstabbing the same entity he tried to bring into the fold?

Long essay, zero coherence!