Post
by Horus » 10 Dec 2019, 00:05
eden,
The fact that people are discussing about the The Destiny Ethiopia 2032 (Transformative Scenario Planning) event is a good thing. This what democracy is all about. It is also a good thing that two government officials or member of the party disagree on issues or principles is a good things. This is what democracy is all about. Ethiopians are a people are conditioned to believe in nothing but all kinds of authoritarian ideology and policy - feudalism, militarism, tribal authoritarianism, etc.
With respect to Destiny Ethiopia 20132, Ma'reg Getachew did not understand what TSP exercise means.
The 50 TSP team members dis not propose 4 future solution. They did not predict 4 future outcomes. They did not even agree as a vision on any single future agenda. This is a well known systems theory based problem solving methodology, TSP, that is.
In the world, there are possible events; there are impossible events and others in between. Scenario forming is essentially about being an honest and informed sense-maker and observer.
Then the team members look at the existing social political and facts form a few possible events. Notice that they are not predicting a future event. They simply say given these current realities they see at least 4 possible events.
Hegemony
Broken chair
Dawn
Division
Why do they do these? The purpose is to make a choice. Social actors like the 50 team members design (the key terms is Design) these 4 scenarios as possible future Ethiopian social systems and now vote to choose which ones they would like to see.
This is what social systems theory calls the Emergent principle of social systems which simply states that we can't (don't) predict the future; we choose the future. Hence, the team chose Dawn as most desirable. It is a consensus forming type of exercise about a possible desirable future, it is not a prediction of any future outcome.
In a purpose driven, intentional, deliberate human social system, we cannot predict how people would behave in the future but based our own scenario of possible desirable future, we can choose which one to act on, which to create, which one to bring about.
Remember, the teams members have said that Dawn scenario is created, it is made by the people themselves not expected to happen as a predicted event.
So Ma'reg Getachew has totally missed whole point of this methodology and exercise.