Mereja Forum

[Zmeselo]

Why does TPLF badly need the next election to be held?

August 20, 2019

Asmelash Yohannes (PhD, Mekelle University School of Law)

https://www.zehabesha.com/why-does-tplf ... o-be-held/

From a strategic point of view, the leaders of TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) know, or they are predicting to say the least, that the ruling EPDRF party may not survive the upcoming general election. You can call this a gamble or a bluff! But it could make sense if you have the time to crunch the numbers!



TPLF is with no doubt credited with the creation of the different parties that the ruling party EPDRF is composed of. Thus, their strategic calculation and prediction should not be undermined. They are betting that ODP (Oromo Democratic Party) and ADP (Amhara Democratic Party) would be victims of their own political making: the ‘reform’ championed by both parties would backfire spectacularly and it would either sweep them into the trash bin! or would highly weaken them politically. This thinking is based on different factors. ODP and ADP are going to face an uphill battle in their home turf in the upcoming general election as they are going to compete against opposition parties that have strong support at grass roots level. For example, ODP would compete against OLF (Oromo Liberation Front) and OFC (Oromo Federalist Congress) in Oromia region. OLF, despite the splitting of the party into different factions due to internal power struggle, has a strong support throughout Oromia. The reception of OLF’s leader Abbo Dawud Ebsa at Addis Ababa from his self imposed exile had attracted millions of people. Main streets and road junctions in many cities of Oromia region are still painted with the flag of OLF. On the other hand, OFC is led by charismatic political veterans: both Dr. Merrara Gudena and Bekella Gerba wield greater influence in Oromia than that of the current president of Oromia region Abbo Shimelis Abdissa. Thus, TPLFites are of the opinion that ODP’s share of the ballots in Oromia region would be snatched by OLF and OFC. Furthermore, Jawar Mohammed, a political firebrand of the Querro movement, is a force that needs to be reckoned with. His decision to support either of the political opponents of ODP could be a game changer.

Further north, every political observer in Ethiopia understands that ADP of Amhara region is at crossroads. The assassination of high ranking political leaders of ADP in June 2019 was the last thing the party needed. Even before this unfortunate event, the party was under immense pressure from new and emerging nationalist parties. Nationalist parties led by National Movement of Amhara (NMA) and other vocal activists residing abroad have managed to shrink the influence of ADP in Amhara region. This was factored by TPLF strategists. TPLFites are dead sure that the combination of internal power struggle within ADP and the threat from nationalist parties in Amhara would hasten the demise of ADP.

In General, TPLF seems to conclude that ODP and ADP would be at perilous situation at the next general election. The flip side of their argument is that TPLF can comfortably win the election in Tigray as they still seem to command the support of the elite and ordinary people. There are four opposition parties in Tigray: National Congress of Great Tigray (BAITONA), Third Revolution Tigray (TRT), ARENA Tigray, and TAND (Tigray Alliance for National Democracy). However, these four parties don’t seem to mobilize people and their support in Tigray is not something that could threaten the dominance of TPLF. If the next election is to be held as planned, there’s no doubt that TPLF will garner significant support in Tigray to overwhelmingly sweep all seats for the regional and national parliaments. However, the future for ODP and ADP is very bleak. TPLFites have officially and unofficially started to proclaim that they would seek coalition with other federalist parties if ODP and ADP fail to win sufficient votes in the next general election.

I am not in a position to ridicule the calculations of the TPLF strategists nor am I going to give them thumps up. But nothing would surprise me if Prime Minister Abiy decides to postpone the general election for fear of losing his grip on power. He perfectly understands that he stands zero chance of staying at the helm if ODP and ADP lose ground in Oromia and Amhara, respectively. For this reason, he may decide to postpone the election indefinitely until he feels comfortable that the survival of EPRDF is not under any threat. However, it would not surprise me a bit if the ruling coalition party disintegrates before the general election is held! These days, only fools would dare to predict what the future holds for the country.

[Zmeselo]

Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam’s moving family story as revealed by siblings ; lesson for African leaders


It is not unusual to hear stories of African leaders linked to corruption stashing away millions of dollars (even billions) in oversea banks. Ethiopia itself is now corrupted at a higher level. However, the story of Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam, who is currently living in Zimbabwe, is remarkable different in a good way. Two of his siblings revealed the story in an interview with Journalist Dereje Haile.


Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam

Borkena

https://borkena.com/2019/08/20/colonel- ... n-leaders/

August 20, 2019

As a man who led Ethiopia for 17 good years, Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam is definitely one of the most controversial figures in Ethiopian history.

There are those who accuse him as “butcher of Ethiopia,” as was often propagated in mainstream media in the west. He is mostly accused of the “red terror”, certainly one of the darkest spots in the contemporary history of Ethiopia, and they claim that he is personally responsible for the deaths of thousands of young Ethiopians.

And there are those who tend to see his leadership within the context of a revolutionary situation in the country starting the year 1974 and in light of struggle between “revolutionary” and “counter-revolutionary” forces. This group argued that the “red terror” was rather a response to a political group that dared to advance opposition to the transitional military government, which Mengistu led; through violent means (they call it “white terror).

We still have another group of Ethiopians who tend to criticize Mengistu but for a different reason. They blame him for leaving Ethiopia and for not fighting to the end of his own life in Ethiopia. From the perspective of this group, there seems to be an assumption that Mengistu made a conscious choice to escape from Ethiopia and leave for Zimbabwe https://borkena.com/2018/08/01/hailemar ... -zimbabwe/ – which is still a debate that is not settled for good.

What is not disputable about Mengistu Hailemariam is that he led a selfless life as a leader and is not implicated in corruption – in all its forms.

Two of his siblings (he has four brothers and two sisters) are now revealing the circumstances ( economic and social) under which Colonel Mengistu’s parents and siblings lived both when he was in power and after he was toppled by Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) led a coalition of guerrilla groups.

Dereje Hailemariam, host of Benegerachin lay in Arts World TV, spoke to Yeshi Hailemariam (sister and last born) and Dereje Hailemariam.

The interview revealed that Mengistu Hailemariam’s family led the life of an ordinary Ethiopian. In fact, it even appeared that the family struggled.

Dereje Hailemariam is a plumber and he still does not have a permanent job and has to struggle in the slow market for plumbers in Ethiopia, in the capital Addis Ababa.

All that his sister, Yeshi Haile Mariam, remembers as far as the financial benefit is concerned is while colonel Mengistu was in power is that at one time she asked him money for shopping; three siblings wanted to buy clothing. And she remembers that he told her “Medab will give you.” He was referring to his wife Wubanchi Bishaw. And the wife gave them 150 Ethiopian birr – probably about the US $70 during that time.

Most Ethiopians do seem to know that Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam is clean when it comes to corruption and most of his colleagues have similar stories.

But what the two siblings revealed about their economic situation is very moving.

They also revealed that neither Mengistu himself nor his children (who are all grown up now and medical doctors by profession) are in touch with them.

The interview with Dereje Haile (in Amharic) is shared below.

Some of the comments:

wedinakfa

August 20, 2019 at 5:58 pm

Borkena check your

“They also revealed that neither Mengistu himself nor his children (who are all grown up now and medical doctors by profession) are in touch with them.”

Say
They also revealed that neither Mengistu nor his children (who are all grown up and now medical doctors by profession) ARE NOT IN TOUCH with them.

OR

They also revealed that Mengistu and his children (who are grown up and now medical doctors by profession) ARE IN TOUCH with them.

I think!

wedinakfa

August 20, 2019 at 6:26 pm

No matter how much lipstick or different shades of colour the BRUTALITY OF THIS repugnant evil man called Mengistu is a modern day most BRUTAL, SADISTIC and psycho is beyond any one comprehension, he should be skinned alive and left to dry in the sun.

Reply

Mai K

August 20, 2019 at 10:43 pm

I totally agree . No need for sugarcoating

rezen

August 20, 2019 at 9:36 pm

Subject: Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam’s moving family story as revealed by siblings ; lesson for African leaders, borkena, August 20, 2019

Commentary, 20 Aug 2019
In my humble opinion and very limited knowledge of World History, the crime perpetrated by Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam during his leadership for twelve years [1974 to 1986] is equal to the savagery of World Dictatorial Butchers against Humanity. How could one forget/forgive, for example, Hitler. How could we easily forget – as Human Beings regardless of who we are and where we are – the savagery of rounding-up, in a prison field, sixty Ethiopian officials and decimating their life without a trace of humanity for justice.

To skirt around the wanton murder of Ethiopians in general by the regime of Colonel Mengistu Hailemariam – during twelve years of madness and savagery — is tantamount to demeaning the Life and Worthy of Ethiopians in general. This is NOT the characteristic of Ethiopians. What it was is a shear savagery and devoid of any element of HUMAN characteristic. Any attempt to ‘modify history’ relating to the shameful criminal act by lunatic collection of self-appointed marauders is tantamount in blessing a Mass Murder Act of Ethiopians, by Ethiopians and in Ethiopia. Will Ethiopians of the 21st Century ‘swallow’ that eternal shameful history of Ethiopia? There must be some sense of HUMANITY left from the ANCIENT HISTORY of ETHIOPIA.. THE END