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dawwit
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Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by dawwit » 11 Jul 2019, 18:06

Which party would cease to exist? What is the fate of abiy with out eprdf. What is the fate of the country in the absence of a strong party like eprdf?

Axumawi
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Axumawi » 11 Jul 2019, 18:14

Wait until the dust settles.

Not known yet.

Abiy will try one more time, because the Oromo parties will also make statement. That is more critical for him.

dawwit
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by dawwit » 11 Jul 2019, 18:33

I agree.
But what is ur educated guess, minus ur affiliation.

Sam Ebalalehu
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Sam Ebalalehu » 11 Jul 2019, 18:52

The TPLF politicians have not been political savvy, just had been lucky. Of course, EPDRF has been dying slowly for more than a year now. It was impossible to declare EPDRF dead and bury it officially a year ago for obvious reasons. From some of the top EPDRF politicians who had invested in ethnic politics heavily to the Kebele chairman should have sabotaged the burial not to occur.
The only way out of the dilemma was to kill EPDRF from within. EPDRF is an outdated political entity. It is divisive. It is corrupt. It is against the time.
Now, it seems to me the TPLF politicians have awakened for the hard truth : the EPDRF they molded to shape, hoping to whip it for eternity so that their orders will be taken in earnest is gasping its last breath.
In its dying the beneficiary of EPDRF politics might try to pull out some tricks. Ethiopians should watch out.

sun
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by sun » 11 Jul 2019, 19:27

dawwit wrote:
11 Jul 2019, 18:06
Which party would cease to exist? What is the fate of abiy with out eprdf. What is the fate of the country in the absence of a strong party like eprdf?
hmm... 8)

Descent to the bottom of the dirtiest drain just like Yemen, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, etc. I am not a politician but yet knowing the scenario is very simple and clear cut to say the least. Aby's mandate is more than legitimate specially if the country might be forced to move in the direction of confusion, conflict, uncertainty, insecurities, etc. In the absence of Abiy mamma Ethiopia will face hundreds of agitated and violent power seeking warlords who may try to grab power thorough savagely slaughtering ordinary poor citizens all over the places. That has always been Ethiopian politics for centuries and that is also what most of these so activities and political parties know best.


“The optimist lives on the peninsula of infinite possibilities; the pessimist is stranded on the island of perpetual indecision.” ~ W. Arthur

gearhead
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by gearhead » 11 Jul 2019, 19:35

Naaa...What for? Oromo are persona non grata in that poor quasi empire where any little amhara can redefine everything! Look at what it got Abiy for sticking his head out! Look at what it earned jawar for his call for democracy! Look at Bekele Gerba and many more! Convetsly, name any tigrian or amhara that lives in total hostility!

ODP might aggregate oromo opinions and address ADP and TPLF behind closed doors but there wont be any statement! That is my opinion!
Axumawi wrote:
11 Jul 2019, 18:14
Wait until the dust settles.

Not known yet.

Abiy will try one more time, because the Oromo parties will also make statement. That is more critical for him.

Halafi Mengedi
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Halafi Mengedi » 11 Jul 2019, 19:59

The cut answer is the nationalist survives. All the four parties are not from monolithic pull of population but distinct arch enemies ethnics and all supposed to survive but ODP is not nationalist can be replaced by the true nationalist OLF, The Oromo people will paint them the left over Atela. The same is true ADP since there is another party created from the nationalist bones ABN will replace ADP. Woyane not only will survive but will form another one with other ethnics if not OLF and ABN soon. Or they will dismantle the country, one thing is very clear there will not be any group to dominate others and there will not be trust among ethnics moving forward. The question is when they divorce, will they do it peacefully civilized manner or primitive savage scavengers???
Last edited by Halafi Mengedi on 11 Jul 2019, 20:33, edited 3 times in total.

Za-Ilmaknun
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Za-Ilmaknun » 11 Jul 2019, 20:14

TPLF has been wielding more power than its size in the so called EPRDF. If TPLF drops itself from being part of its dubiously formed party, which was formed with the primary aim of controlling the whole country through satellite parties, then the rest of the member parties will carry on still with enough representation. The power of governance emanates from the number of representation parties have in the House of Representatives. TPLF will take its 32 or so members and be an irrelevant party as it should always have been rightly so, if anything that smells democratic system prevails in the country. ODP, the southern part and ADP are clearly the super majority and can govern with clear mandate.

The one last card TPLF might be pulling is armed confrontation by using its infiltrators in the security apparatus. This may create some level of destruction but will be contained eventually. This will give the Abiy administration to clean the saboteurs once and for all. ODP, ADP the Southern party and all the rest of the coalition partners will definitely caucus together and take the change started forward for their own benefits.

Sam Ebalalehu
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Sam Ebalalehu » 11 Jul 2019, 20:16

Halafi, do not delude yourself in believing that Ethiopia remains intact because of EPDRF. The opposite is true. Ethiopia has been unstable because of EPDRF. If EPDRF dies tomorrow nothing changes. Life goes on . New political parties and those on opposition compete to lead. The ordinary Ethiopians continue their daily routine. If EPDRF, more accurately TPLF , had not ruled Ethiopia, the sky might have fallen is the “teret” scripted in Mekele. There is no an iota of truth to it.

gearhead
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by gearhead » 11 Jul 2019, 20:31

Your's and sun's idealism and optimism surprises me. Unfortunately, none of the leaders of the opposition share your view. Just notice the madness once EPRDF was perceived weak and imagine the chaos in its absence.

Everyone will become balderas!


Sam Ebalalehu wrote:
11 Jul 2019, 20:16
Halafi, do not delude yourself in believing that Ethiopia remains intact because of EPDRF. The opposite is true. Ethiopia has been unstable because of EPDRF. If EPDRF dies tomorrow nothing changes. Life goes on . New political parties and those on opposition compete to lead. The ordinary Ethiopians continue their daily routine. If EPDRF, more accurately TPLF , had not ruled Ethiopia, the sky might have fallen is the “teret” scripted in Mekele. There is no an iota of truth to it.

Sadacha Macca
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Sadacha Macca » 11 Jul 2019, 21:05

oromo parties OLF, ODP, OFC] + qeerroo fi ummata oromo in general will unite and prepare for any eventualities.

Sam Ebalalehu
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Re: Question: which party ,out of the 4 ,survived when EPRDF breaks apart? Would Abiy's mandate still be legitimate ?

Post by Sam Ebalalehu » 11 Jul 2019, 21:11

By definition transition entails choas. Ethiopia has not had the culture of democracy. Competition between rival parties might not be as civil as Ethiopians wish it to be. But we will grow out of it. That the existence of Ethiopia as a country depends on TPLF guiding, I repeat, has been a “teret” scripted in Mekele.
I agree the opposition parties by in large are substance free, slogan worshippers, but there will be a few who will grow to meet the challenge of the time. It is different when remaining in opposition with no a single member in parliament, and when given a chance to govern. Responsibilitiy molds some politicians. They grow along with the responsibilities they would be accounted for.
I believe wholeheartedly the savvy opposition politicians know EPDRF as we know it will cease to exist sometime soon, and they are preparing for that time. One should not forget there are EPDRF members who wish the death of EPDRF as much as the opposition politicians do.
What we need right now is politicians who change the narrative. No, an Ethiopian arch enemy is not another Ethiopian. It is lack of education. It is our being foreign to science. It is our insistence to stick to old culture even if we know it stood against our development. It is our lack of courage to try something different. It is our lack of commitment of belief that our life should be better than our parents’.
I am eagerly await to meet those politicians.

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