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gearhead
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Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gearhead » 23 May 2019, 17:34

If elections are to be held in a years time as planed, EZEMA can win a respectable position of 30% next only to an EPRDF who will be watered down in Oromia and Amhara to holding of 40% of federal seats.

Intra-EPRDF power position will change with Agar and TPLF bringing- in more than 50plus of EPRDF seats. EPRDF at less than 40% dictates that the country can only be governed by a coalition government.


This is how I came to the conclusion:

1) Amhara Region: ABN 40%, ADP 30%, EZEMA 30%
2) Oromia Region: ODP 30%, All oromo oppositions 60%, EZEMA 10.
3) Somali Region: EPRDF Agar 70%, Somali opposition 20%, EZEMA 10%.
4) Tigray: 90% TPLF, Tigray Opposition 9%, EZEMA 1%.
5) South: EPRDF 70%, EZEMA 30%.
6) Addis Ababa; EPRDF 60%, 30% EZEMA, Others 10%.
7) All other regions: 80% EPRDF, 15% EZEMA, 5% Others.

What is your take on my breakdown and its implication on who will govern ethiopia?

gearhead
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gearhead » 23 May 2019, 17:59

EZEMA has already established presence in 325 weredas.

gearhead
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gearhead » 23 May 2019, 18:05

With 3% of the population directly dislocated, with at least 7% of the population, a first hand witness and/or is directly related to the 3%; and that in areas hitherto staunch supporters of the federal system...it is safe to assume that the EPRDF system has lost 10% of its voters to EZEMA without EZEMA doing anything.

It appears that EPRDF is and will become its own worst enemy lest EZEMA cuts its own foot by becoming over zealot and more objectionable than EPRDF!

gearhead
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gearhead » 23 May 2019, 19:39

TPLF will be the biggest looser of them all as it descends from 100% monopoly of power that it had 2 years ago, to the 25% plus that it holds now through its membership of EPRDF, only to see it dwindle to a 5 to 6% stake once it effectively dismantles its own EPRDF coalition which by the way wont control the destination of the country for the aforementioned reasons.

Alas, if there could ever be an example of shooting your own foot in the political sense, no one has a better testimony than TPLF!

gearhead
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gearhead » 23 May 2019, 21:44

EZEMA's concerns include containing its zealot and insulting members/supporters, containing ABN within Amhara region and avoiding any complicity with ABN, last but not least...forcing ABN to open Amhara region to competition.

Abaymado
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by Abaymado » 23 May 2019, 22:38

This is my guess:
1) Amhara Region: ABN 60%, ADP 20%, EZEMA 20%
2) Oromia Region: ODP 30%, All oromo oppositions 50%, EZEMA 20.
3) Somali Region: EPRDF Agar 50%, Somali opposition 40%, EZEMA 10%.
4) Tigray: 90% TPLF, Tigray Opposition 9%, EZEMA 1%.
5) South: EPRDF 50%, EZEMA 50%.
6) Addis Ababa; EPRDF 20%, 40% EZEMA, Others 40%.
7) All other regions (dire dawa, afar, beneshangul ,gambela): 30% EPRDF, 20% EZEMA, 50% Others.

info
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by info » 24 May 2019, 03:58

I agree with overall 30% for EZEMA but on Addis you are way wrong.

:lol: I was recently in Ethiopia. Although I don't want to push this issue too much for the sake of the country, Addis Ababa is gone for EPRDF. Everybody is aware of the Id controversy etc. I was surprised that even mothers were very well informed. And the most surprising thing to me was that they were not informed from the media but from their friends and relatives who actually experienced things like a two day shut down of wereda offices so that only new Id cards could be issued for non-residents. The oromos who were born and raised in Addis are also the ones I saw opposing this move which I was surprised. Some of the oromos with Oromo names who got some preferential treatment in the administration also report to their friends about this kind of things. It was one of the surprising things that I found.

Anyway Addis is gone for EPRDF. If you don't believe me just look at the past two Addis cleaning campaigns. I was there when one of the campaigns was being conducted. No one wanted to participate. I asked many why they are not going and everybody said they don't agree to ODP's policy on Addis. Mind you the campaign was allover the media and even at that day at around 5 am there was a Tirumba Nefi calling the people to come out and clean :lol: The same thing happened on second campaign. Not even 1% came out to participate. If this call was made some 5 months ago believe me the whole city would be on its feet to show support for Abiy. EPRDF is done in Addis and if it somehow manage to steal the votes via fake IDs, the 2005 disaster will be the result.

So for Addis I will say max 20% for EPRDF and I am being gracious. EZEMA will win the most seats if they don't mess up again as usual by hiding when people need them the most or if there is not another Addis based opposition until then.
gearhead wrote:
23 May 2019, 17:34
This is how I came to the conclusion:

1) Amhara Region: ABN 40%, ADP 30%, EZEMA 30%
2) Oromia Region: ODP 30%, All oromo oppositions 60%, EZEMA 10.
3) Somali Region: EPRDF Agar 70%, Somali opposition 20%, EZEMA 10%.
4) Tigray: 90% TPLF, Tigray Opposition 9%, EZEMA 1%.
5) South: EPRDF 70%, EZEMA 30%.
6) Addis Ababa; EPRDF 60%, 30% EZEMA, Others 10%.
7) All other regions: 80% EPRDF, 15% EZEMA, 5% Others.

What is your take on my breakdown and its implication on who will govern ethiopia?

Tiago
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by Tiago » 24 May 2019, 14:48

This is just opinion poll,I guess. personal opinion.

All other regions: 80% EPRDF, 15% EZEMA, 5% Others. :lol:

regarding Dr Birhanu,most people have gone off the boil. can he also be able to muzzle the motor mouth zealots?

gurre
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gurre » 24 May 2019, 17:00

I have for the first time seen Efrem Madebo speaking, on the LTV show. I came to a conclusion to myself, that he is the biggest liability to EZEMA with the significant percentage of the voting constituency.
He is not articulate, incoherent and not persuasive in what he says, at least to me, he should not be on national TV representing a new party ,in the first place. It is simply bizarre, he claims to be advisor and strategist to the new party to win voters in different constituencies, using the model of republican/democrat of america, but in reality he is switching off potential voters to the party, i hope it is not by design.
I let it go without comment his stand, on esat eletawi, Abiy and his OPDO, etc, but listening to what he said between the lines, i am inclined to give the benefit of the doubt to the claim that there is an amhara hate in the upper echelon of the party.

Ethoash
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by Ethoash » 24 May 2019, 17:19

i teach this forum how democracy work no body get it

congress have two house

upper house and the lower house

upper house everyone get two seat.. that means 80 ethnic will get two seat regardless of their size

lower house everyone will get one seat regardless of their size.. then on the second round they will get seat according to their population

now if we have 545 seat ... oromo will get 30 seat regardless of 100 million people vote for them

the only thing differ is how many seat ODP get out of 30 how many seat OLF get out of 30 the max they going to get is 30

the same way the Amhara also will get 20 seat and out of that how many each Amhara party will get Amhara region will vote..

this way everyone will have their own say hence called Representative democracy

Selam/
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by Selam/ » 24 May 2019, 17:28

That’s a pretty good 538. But you have underestimated ABN in Amhara and EZEMA in Addis.
gearhead wrote:
23 May 2019, 17:34
If elections are to be held in a years time as planed, EZEMA can win a respectable position of 30% next only to an EPRDF who will be watered down in Oromia and Amhara to holding of 40% of federal seats.

Intra-EPRDF power position will change with Agar and TPLF bringing- in more than 50plus of EPRDF seats. EPRDF at less than 40% dictates that the country can only be governed by a coalition government.


This is how I came to the conclusion:

1) Amhara Region: ABN 40%, ADP 30%, EZEMA 30%
2) Oromia Region: ODP 30%, All oromo oppositions 60%, EZEMA 10.
3) Somali Region: EPRDF Agar 70%, Somali opposition 20%, EZEMA 10%.
4) Tigray: 90% TPLF, Tigray Opposition 9%, EZEMA 1%.
5) South: EPRDF 70%, EZEMA 30%.
6) Addis Ababa; EPRDF 60%, 30% EZEMA, Others 10%.
7) All other regions: 80% EPRDF, 15% EZEMA, 5% Others.

What is your take on my breakdown and its implication on who will govern ethiopia?

Ethoash
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Joined: 20 Apr 2013, 20:24

Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by Ethoash » 24 May 2019, 17:37

547 federal parliamentary seats,

178 in Oromia,
137 in Amhara,
122 in South Ethiopia Peoples State
38 seats in Tigray,
23 seats in Somali State
22 seats in Addis Ababa.
8 seats in Afar states,
9 seats in Benishangul Gumuz,
3 seats in Gambella State

here is the number of seat .. the Amhara are limited to win only 137 seat .. now AG7,CUD, EZM and all other Amhara party might fight over this Amhara seat ...

the same way OLF, and other oromo party have only 178 seat fight over .. this way everyone will get their own seat ...

this way Gambella people will send their 3 representative...

now as i said there is two house in the parliament for example oromo have 178 seat but Afar have only 8 so you think they will be dominated for this there is answer called upper house .. in upper house everyone get equal number of seat ..
two senators in Oromia,
two senators in Amhara,
two senators in South Ethiopia Peoples State
two senators seats in Tigray,
two senators seats in Somali State
two senators in Addis Ababa.
two senators in Afar states,
two senators in Benishangul Gumuz,
two senators in Gambella State


do u get it if u want to pass law the oromo might have number at lower house but the bill must have two vote when it come to upper house everyone will have equal vote and the bill will not pass if doesnt the support of majority this way everyone is cover .. learn this how democracy work before anything else..

gearhead
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by gearhead » 26 May 2019, 12:26

Thanks guys for your input. The small sample size opinion poll has converged around;

1) ABN and Oromo Oposition groups taking a large chunk out of EPRDF, leading to a much more contentious parliament. The already weak EPRDF will disband and/or will reconfigure to reflect the power of the agar.

2) EZEMA winning a respectable 20-30% position from where it can a) expand its position b) act a major tie breaker on issues.

That said, the point that Etoash brought foraward is interesting: The two tiered parliament wont be a cake walk for those who want to impliment change to the system or the constitution.

ET: Is the contest for the upper house different than the one for the lower house? Are the upper house members directly elected by the people?

Ethoash
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Re: Election Predictions: Dr. Birhanu's EZEMA can win 30% of seats!

Post by Ethoash » 26 May 2019, 14:05

gearhead wrote:
26 May 2019, 12:26

ET: Is the contest for the upper house different than the one for the lower house? Are the upper house members directly elected by the people?
the answer is depend in USA they r elected in Canada they r appointed .. the point is not elected or appointed the point is the Senators must reside or have their real property in the division for which they are appointed. to speak for people they have only one vote but they r counter balancing the oromo and the Amhara repetitiveness vote ... if the vote passed because of the oromo and the Amhara at lower house the upper house will stop it if doesn't support their interest this way compromised reach this is not a prefect system ....

this is like Africa have limited number of team that they could send to world football cup.. but 52 African nation will compete to get that spot something like that ... it should not be unlimited number of team going to world cup..

the second and very important point is the South Africa team play only with South African team, the Western nation will play with Western nation and Africa will play African team this way we can send the Africa team to the game otherwise if it is open game where everyone play to anyone then i will think the Africa will never get a chance to join the first round of world cup at least ...

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