René Lefort, William Davison make the following points:
[[...Abiy has not decisively chosen a side in any of Ethiopia’s multi-polar disputes, ....TPLF wanted to stop this hedging. So it is nudging Abiy to choose.
Pushing ahead with elections next year increases the pressure, which could lead to further fraying.
Perhaps partly due to TPLF’s roll of the dice, the Prime Minister and fellow EPRDF executives pledged to keep to the electoral timetable last week, which, because of the political volatility and accompanying unrest, is going to be tricky regardless of their stated intentions.
The following is similar to what Ledetu pointed out:
What this highlights is a key transition problem: time. There is a multi-year mismatch between a realistic reform schedule — legislative, security sector, the judiciary, democratic institutions, opposition, media, civil society — and the electoral schedule and pressures created by the impatient political ambitions of a multitude of actors in a liberalized environment.
Additionally, Ethiopia’s political challenges probably cannot actually be solved through even truly free elections — and especially not polls held next year — as the rifts are too entrenched, deep, and unstable. What happens, for instance, if OLF ends up in control of Oromia’s government, NaMA Amhara’s, and Berhanu’s Ezema [
EDP Ledetu] takes Addis Ababa’s council, but no party or stable coalition controls the minimum of 274 seats needed for a governing majority in the federal parliament?...]]
Pushing Abiy to be Meles? That is very likely.
https://www.ethiopia-insight.com/2019/0 ... ist-front/
gearhead wrote: ↑21 Aug 2019, 16:39
Axumite....having had EPRDF commit to a deadline, you went around a pocked him into this absurdity? didn't you? taxibo chiqa!
1) Does this eternal work-horse of yours know the meaning of "xiqit" when the entire EPRDF, its AGAR, MEDREK and literally all ethnic based parties have agreed to and/or, have not requested for its postponement? Please, do help him with quantitative amharic and interpretive/inferential statistics so he becomes more adept with your esatina-chid politics! ok?
2) What districts is he talking about when he is inferring a lack of peace and security? It is not as if he has a base to run anywhere; that much he himself has admitted but he is allowed to imply a country at war when that is not the case! I remember "elections" during mengistu time where we had no problem casting a ballot in most of the country when the country was fighting a full fledged war against EPLF, TPLF, Somalia, ARDUF, SLF and OLF combined. Mock election they were, nonetheless casting a ballot was never a problem in at least 90% of the election districts. So what exactly is he talking about when he mentions lack of security? He needs to prove to the election board, the election districts where he would have security problems.
3) Not only that, he needs to prove to the election board for how long the election needs to be postponed and how the postponement to a set duration will help.
4) Last but not least, he needs to prove how changing a quasi-legitimate to an illegal and illegitimate government would help the peace and security of the country where the military itself can go unruly and insubordinate to a government which is in violation of its own constitution. In other words, what makes him so sure and why does he believe his position is a responsible one when we are certain that things can go worse?
