Axumezana has been very precise and strategic with his long term vision. The below post was written only 6 months after the start of Tigray War. TDF were not close to returning to their capital - Mekelle. His reading of what was going to happen is amazing. He is full of energy equipped with all rounded knowledge. He has remained to lead in positive engagements in the this forum despite the name calling he faces from many factions in the forum.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=258159&p=1183398Axumezana wrote: ↑17 May 2021, 23:27- It is now very clear that Isaias and Abiy failed to brake the back bone of TPLF even though they were able to wound it.
- TPLF is now fully impeded within the Tigray people and it is not possible to destroy it. The only way to destroy TPLF is to win the heart and mind of Tigrayans.However Abiy, Isaias and Amhara lost that golden chance irreversibly by attacking civilians, raping females , robbing the people, destruction of civilian assets, ethnic cleansing and genocide.
- The military strength of TDF is getting stronger both in terms of manpower, capability and armament day by day and they have already built the competency and critical mass to defeat the enmies of Tigray. TDF has transformed itself from reactive defensive position to proactive military force that challenge it's enmies at its own place and time.
- On the diplomatic front Tigray has irreversibly won and that that is putting determinant pressure on the Abiy, Amhara elites and Isaias alliance and we will see Abiy and Isaias relationship strained and irreversibly damaged soon.Abiy will try his best to dissociate himself from Isaias in order to win the mind and heart of the international community so that he can survive as a politician. He is expected to ask for protection from USA from retaliation from both Isaias and TPLF.
- Isaias is expected to be the main loser of this war. Military defeat by TDF and sanction by super powers will motivate the Eritrea people to rise against Isaias government and topple him.The new Eritrea will be democratic and friendly with it's neighbours including Tigray
- Amhara elites and their militia will be also the other main losers. Abiy will ultimately be forced to order the Amhara militia out of Tigray.The rivalry between Oromos and Amhara coupled with international pressure and the success of TDF will strain Abiy and Amhara elites alliance byound elastic limit and brake it.
- Abiy is expected to survive but it will be like passing through fire.
- Last but not least TPLF will come up as a new born political force that will shape and shake the Horn of Africa for the years to come , this time not from Arat Killo / Finfine but from Tigray. A new independent nation will be born in the Horn Africa and the remaining Ethiopia is expected to be Oromoized and further weakness of Amhara with further empowerment of Kimant, Agew and Oromos in Amhara.