Ethiopian News, Current Affairs and Opinion Forum


Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby ProudEthiopian » 03 Sep 2012, 05:02


The late Meles Zenawi said:
Egypt will not be able to stop Ethiopia from building dams on the river. The way forward is not for Egypt to try and stop the unstoppable. The way forward is to seek a win-win solution through diplomatic efforts.

So there is this likelihood that Egypt could start war.

Ethiopia and allies vs. Egypt & Sudan

1. Cause

No doubt Ethiopia and her allies have a just cause and therefore are the good guys and can expect the world's sympathy under normal circumstances. They are fighting against an unjust and strange colonial treaty written for the sole purpose of benefiting Egypt at the expense of other riparians.

2. Alliances

It is not clear whether Ethiopia and the other upstream countries have formed a military alliance.
In the case of Egypt and Sudan we can be certain that there is such an alliance. It is also not clear how the AU will respond when a military conflict has begun. But we can be sure that the Arab League will back Egypt and Sudan. Though the Ethiopian group has the right cause the West and the international community may take a neutral stance overtly and support the Egyptian group covertly. You remember the negative response in the western media after the building of the Hidase Dam was announced ?



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby ProudEthiopian » 03 Sep 2012, 05:35


3. Military Hardware

No doubt the Egyptians have advantage here both in terms of quantity and quality. Should arms sanctions be imposed by the UN on both sides of the conflict the Egyptians have the advantage to use home manufactured weapons like armored vehicles.

Image



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby revolutions » 03 Sep 2012, 05:52




The only possibility that the countries could go to war over the Nile water is, if the power in Ethiopia begins to slip out of the hands of the TPLF, and that they feel the need to externalize their domestic problems by creating a boogeyman called Egypt, that eventually the Ethiopian people will ask them to save them from. Some countries in the region, such as Eritrea, refused to become the boogeyman the TPLF had sought to create in order to scare the Ethiopian people into submission. I'm sure Egypt and Sudan will also deprive the TPLF minority regime the tool it needs to prolong its grip on power.

The Ethiopian people prefer diplomacy over armed conflicts to solve the issues involving the Nile water. Ethiopians are naturally good hearted people, they wouldn't want to see their Egyptian brothers suffer from lack of water. In fact, there's plenty of water in the Nile river to go around. The people who are drumming up the war hysteria over the Nile water are working on behalf of foreign land-grabbers in Ethiopia who want to dam the Abay river and irrigate their plantations that grow food for exports. If there are going to be countries that go to war with Egypt over the Nile water, that should be India and Saudi Arabia -- using their own countries armies.
:mrgreen:



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby ProudEthiopian » 03 Sep 2012, 05:58


We can blame woyanes for many things but not for this problem. The problem is real. Egypt denies Ethiopia and other upper riparian countries the right to use Nile water for irrigation,even by threatening with war.



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby revolutions » 03 Sep 2012, 06:29


ProudEthiopian wrote:We can blame woyanes for many things but not for this problem. The problem is real. Egypt denies Ethiopia and other upper riparian countries the right to use Nile water for irrigation,even by threatening with war.


That's because Egypt never had the opportunity to deal with real Ethiopians who have Ethiopia's best interest at heart. People who have no qualm about evicting 2 million Ethiopians from their ancestral lands and selling it for as little as $1 per hectare to foreigners, cannot be trusted to handle the Nile water issues, for they will end up selling the water too!

There's nothing more sad and tragic than to watch landless people dwelling on issues involving water. But the good thing, they're not. The people who bring up the issue are often the individuals who are very PROUD that big tracts of agricultural land in Southern Ethiopia -- an area the size of the country Belgium -- was sold to Indian and Arab land-grabbers.

The millions of indigenous people who were forcibly evicted from the land they lived for generations are less impressed with your standing up to the boogeyman Egypt. If you want to make the victims "proud," go stand up to the Indian and Saudi land-grabbers who not only own the right to the land, but also to the water within its boundaries.



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby yoha » 03 Sep 2012, 06:32


All Egypt need to do is bomb the dam that is all above all they have a legal right of ownership over Nile River. Meles was doing in order to get the 148million dollar fund for dam construction unfortunately he is dead before seen that money .



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby ProudEthiopian » 03 Sep 2012, 06:42


That "legal right" is unjust and not recognized by the others.
Egypt could bomb the dam and the Ethiopian side could also bomb dams in Sudan and Egypt. What if the Ethiopian side decides to divert the Nile ?

Image

yoha wrote:All Egypt need to do is bomb the dam that is all above all they have a legal right of ownership over Nile River. Meles was doing in order to get the 148million dollar fund for dam construction unfortunately he is dead before seen that money .



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby ProudEthiopian » 03 Sep 2012, 07:40


4. Strategy

Publicly the Egyptians have threatened to send commando units to destroy installations along the Blue Nile. Ethiopian experts however have said that Egypt have to occupy Ethiopia,particularly
the Nile basin in the country which is most of the western half of the country, in order to prevent the country from using Nile waters.
But given the fact that even strong armies like that of the US are incapable of controlling
Afghanistan a country like Egypt can not even think of occupying a country as big as Ethiopia.
Likely that the Egyptians form alliances with groups within Ethiopia, like muslims and Somalis, and use them against their own country. They could try to work towards disintegration.But historically Ethiopians stood as one when the country was victim of foreign aggression. Similar attempts by the Ethiopian group to divide Egypt into Nubian vs. Arab or muslim vs. christian won't succeed also.



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby revolutions » 03 Sep 2012, 08:04



:twisted: Proud Woyane, enough with your nonsense!
:twisted:



"He who owns the land, owns the water."


Image

Image

Image

Image

Image


Image

Image

Image

Image

Image



Re: Can the Ethiopian army & allies win a Nile war against Egypt & Sudan ?

Postby yoha » 03 Sep 2012, 10:15


There is still a Nile treaty signed by Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia in order to do any project you must consult Egypt first the deal was signed 1929 and 1959 Ethiopia signed don't ask me why , Meles was a smart actor he did that in order to get attention from the Ethiopian public and to recover the 148million loan on dam constructions , unfortunately he is gone before he gets attentions and next the Nile issue will not go through if not there will be a war with out no doubt you may not like it but it's what it's , Ethiopia doesn't have enough power in both military and legally .





[quote="ProudEthiopian"]That "legal right" is unjust and not recognized by the others.
Egypt could bomb the dam and the Ethiopian side could also bomb dams in Sudan and Egypt. What if the Ethiopian side decides to divert the Nile ?

Next Page


Return to Ethiopian News & Opinion

Who is online

Registered users: Bing [Bot], elias, ethiopian, Google [Bot], Google Adsense [Bot], Google Feedfetcher, Hamassien, Kara, MSNbot Media, RestoreEthiopic, Yahoo [Bot]