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Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby Zmeselo » 02 Jan 2018, 14:52


Ethiopia at an Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

January 2, 2018

http://www.cohenonafrica.com/homepage/2 ... crossroads


BY AMBASSADOR HERMAN COHEN

Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution states:

“Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.”

This Constitution was adopted in 1994 and ratified in 1995. Between that year and the present, the “right of self-determination” among the country’s nine official “states,” within the official federal system, has never been implemented.

On the contrary, political, economic and security power has been exercised centrally within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of parties with a Marxist-Leninist ideological heritage. The party members of the coalition are:

* Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)

*Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO)

*Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM)

*Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM)

Within the EPRDF, political, economic and security power has been controlled exclusively, until the present, by the hierarchy of the TPLF, whose insurgent military arm defeated the former dictatorship, known as the Derg, in May 1991.

In that month, the TPLF marched into the capital city, Addis Ababa, and proceeded to establish its authoritarian rule throughout Ethiopia, with, of course, the exception of the former province of Eritrea, which won the right of self-determination and secession through its own military efforts.

As of the end of 2017, the TPLF’s control of Ethiopia has begun to disintegrate. The two EPRDF coalition members that rule in Oromo and Amhara states, the OPDO and the ANDM, no longer accept directives from the ruling group in Addis.

Ethiopian national military forces are operating against dissident groups in Oromo and Amhara states that host about half of the Ethiopian population. Police in these areas are not on the side of the federal military units.

Violence has broken out in the southwest between the Somali and Oromo states – and there are indications it has been provoked by the TPLF hierarchy to punish the Oromo state for its growing dissidence from central authority.

Desperation is widespread. Upwards of 750,000 have been displaced, and both sides have participated in ethnic cleansing. Tigrayans in the Gondar region of Amhara State have been targeted for their ethnic background. Universities have been closed due to ethnic violence among students.

What are the causes of this breakdown in public order in Ethiopia?

• Use of lethal force has been the first reaction to disagreement from unarmed civilians. The killing of students on the steps of Addis University in 2005 established an infamous precedent.

• The educated younger generation is heavily unemployed. Prospects for those with diplomas are dim.

• Economic power and accumulated wealth are concentrated in the hands of the Tigray political hierarchy within the TPLF.

• Authoritarian power is exercised arbitrarily; farmers are evicted from their ancestral lands in order to lease massive acreage to foreign industrial agriculture interests.

• The regime exploits ethnicity to divide rather than to unite.

If the reports of the regime inciting cross border conflict between Somali and Oromo states are true, then it is clear that Ethiopia’s prospects for national reconciliation within a democratic dispensation are still a long way over the horizon.

It is time for ruling elites to understand that the opposition is not seeking revenge, nor is it seeking to confiscate the individual wealth of politicians. The opposition wants to assure the implementation of Article 39 of the constitution within the full meaning of the term “self-determination.”



Re: Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby Dawi » 02 Jan 2018, 18:09


Amb. Cohen wrote:If the reports of the regime inciting cross border conflict between Somali and Oromo states are true, then it is clear that Ethiopia’s prospects for national reconciliation within a democratic dispensation are still a long way over the horizon.


Abdi Ali has said, he is an "Ethiopian First" and a "Somali second"; he went on to say, for one to say, I am a "Somali first" is wrong! Lemma has said "Ethiopia-WIN-ET" is hashish! I say, More power to them! 8)

Ethiopians should capitalize on these leaders statements.

What is key in the Crossroads then:

Preventing the armed forces from intervening in the political process; meaning, managing political chaos.

Not to be overambitious about political reforms to bring change at once.

Learn from Egypt, where sweeping reform create political turmoil and shall give the opportunity for the military to come back and take over. Not good.

The key is to take time not to bring instant "democracy" and resume squabbling as usual; who is going to be in charge while the normally divided opposition start arguing? We know they're only united to "bring Woyane down" today?

What about opposition leaving EPRDF aside and talking to each other now while we have a relative security? And see if they have what it takes to maintain stability throughout a future "transition"?

The key what made a transition work successful else where, like in S. Korean successful transition for instance, was, the slow DE politicization of the military; it wasn't about bringing quick democracy.

Cheers!



Re: Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby gearhead » 02 Jan 2018, 21:56


Zmeselo wrote:Ethiopia at an Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

January 2, 2018

http://www.cohenonafrica.com/homepage/2 ... crossroads


BY AMBASSADOR HERMAN COHEN

Article 39 of the Ethiopian Constitution states:

“Every Nation, Nationality and People in Ethiopia has an unconditional right to self-determination, including the right to secession.”

This Constitution was adopted in 1994 and ratified in 1995. Between that year and the present, the “right of self-determination” among the country’s nine official “states,” within the official federal system, has never been implemented.

On the contrary, political, economic and security power has been exercised centrally within the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a coalition of parties with a Marxist-Leninist ideological heritage. The party members of the coalition are:

* Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)

*Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO)

*Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM)

*Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM)

Within the EPRDF, political, economic and security power has been controlled exclusively, until the present, by the hierarchy of the TPLF, whose insurgent military arm defeated the former dictatorship, known as the Derg, in May 1991.

In that month, the TPLF marched into the capital city, Addis Ababa, and proceeded to establish its authoritarian rule throughout Ethiopia, with, of course, the exception of the former province of Eritrea, which won the right of self-determination and secession through its own military efforts.

As of the end of 2017, the TPLF’s control of Ethiopia has begun to disintegrate. The two EPRDF coalition members that rule in Oromo and Amhara states, the OPDO and the ANDM, no longer accept directives from the ruling group in Addis.

Ethiopian national military forces are operating against dissident groups in Oromo and Amhara states that host about half of the Ethiopian population. Police in these areas are not on the side of the federal military units.

Violence has broken out in the southwest between the Somali and Oromo states – and there are indications it has been provoked by the TPLF hierarchy to punish the Oromo state for its growing dissidence from central authority.

Desperation is widespread. Upwards of 750,000 have been displaced, and both sides have participated in ethnic cleansing. Tigrayans in the Gondar region of Amhara State have been targeted for their ethnic background. Universities have been closed due to ethnic violence among students.

What are the causes of this breakdown in public order in Ethiopia?

• Use of lethal force has been the first reaction to disagreement from unarmed civilians. The killing of students on the steps of Addis University in 2005 established an infamous precedent.

• The educated younger generation is heavily unemployed. Prospects for those with diplomas are dim.

• Economic power and accumulated wealth are concentrated in the hands of the Tigray political hierarchy within the TPLF.

• Authoritarian power is exercised arbitrarily; farmers are evicted from their ancestral lands in order to lease massive acreage to foreign industrial agriculture interests.

• The regime exploits ethnicity to divide rather than to unite.

If the reports of the regime inciting cross border conflict between Somali and Oromo states are true, then it is clear that Ethiopia’s prospects for national reconciliation within a democratic dispensation are still a long way over the horizon.

It is time for ruling elites to understand that the opposition is not seeking revenge, nor is it seeking to confiscate the individual wealth of politicians. The opposition wants to assure the implementation of Article 39 of the constitution within the full meaning of the term “self-determination.”


See how the snake invents a cause that doesnt exist? He sounds symphatetic but outright lies about the reason for the uprisings. The uprising started as a land grab issue and in the processes, ethiopia ala oromomara has risen back again.

Just like woyane, cohen is shocked by the convergence and is throwing a wrench of divergence so as to put the extremist woyane back to the poletical center.

The diaspora should now know where cohen has been and where he is coming from and write back accordingly.



Re: Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby gearhead » 02 Jan 2018, 22:12


Abdi elei is entitled to his ethiopianness identification sequence.what he cant do is, use this feigned symantheic sequence to justify and continue ethnic cleansing, that has been cajoled and co-implimented by TPLF generals.

The symantheic sequence is irrelevant when Abdi Ellei committed the unethiopian act of deporting 750k oromo ethiopians from somali region.

Abdi Eley is not even a human, along with ALL tracked he b!tches who are trying to portray him as one.

Dawi wrote:
Amb. Cohen wrote:If the reports of the regime inciting cross border conflict between Somali and Oromo states are true, then it is clear that Ethiopia’s prospects for national reconciliation within a democratic dispensation are still a long way over the horizon.


Abdi Ali has said, he is an "Ethiopian First" and a "Somali second"; he went on to say, for one to say, I am a "Somali first" is wrong! Lemma has said "Ethiopia-WIN-ET" is hashish! I say, More power to them! 8)

Ethiopians should capitalize on these leaders statements.

What is key in the Crossroads then:

Preventing the armed forces from intervening in the political process; meaning, managing political chaos.

Not to be overambitious about political reforms to bring change at once.

Learn from Egypt, where sweeping reform create political turmoil and shall give the opportunity for the military to come back and take over. Not good.

The key is to take time not to bring instant "democracy" and resume squabbling as usual; who is going to be in charge while the normally divided opposition start arguing? We know they're only united to "bring Woyane down" today?

What about opposition leaving EPRDF aside and talking to each other now while we have a relative security? And see if they have what it takes to maintain stability throughout a future "transition"?

The key what made a transition work successful else where, like in S. Korean successful transition for instance, was, the slow DE politicization of the military; it wasn't about bringing quick democracy.

Cheers!



Re: Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby Abdisa » 02 Jan 2018, 22:47


የኢትዮጵያ የትግራይ የመከላከያ የበላይ ኃላፊነቶችና እዞች 68 በመቶ በአድዋ ተወላጆች መያዛቸውን አንድ ጥናት ተቆመ።

Image

በአርበኞች ግንቦት 7 ጥናትና ምርምር ቡድን ተዘጋጅቶ ለኢ.ኤም.ኤፍ የተላከው መረጃ፤ በዘር የተደራጀዉን የወያኔ መከላከያ ተቋም አይን ባወጣ መንገድ በትግራይ በ አድዋ ተወላጆች መያዙን በሰንጠረዥ እና በግራፍ አስቀምጦታል። የጥናቱ ውጤት እንደሚያሳየው ከአጠቃላይ 217 የአገዛዙ ሠራዊት አመራሮች 147ቱ የአድዋ ተወላጆች ሲሆኑ፤ አማራ 32፣ ኦሮሞ 28፣ የደቡብ ሕዝብ ደግሞ በቁጥር 3 ብቻ ናቸው። ሌሎች በሄሮች ማለትም ኣፋር፣ ጋምቤላ፣ቤኒ ሻንጉል፣ ሶማሊ እና ሀረሪ በሰራዊቱ ውስጥ አንድም ድርሻ የላቸውም። የብሄር ስብጥሩ በመቶኛ (%) ሲሰላ ደግሞ አድዋ 68%፣ አማራ 15%፣ ኦሮሞ 13% የደቡብ 3% እና ሌሎች 0% ናቸው።

የመከላከያ ከፍተኛ አዛዦችና የበላይ ኃላፊዎች፣ ከፍተኛ የእዝ አዛዦችና ኃላፊዎች፣ የክፍለ ጦር ዋና አዛዦች እንዲሁም የአየር ኃይል አዛዦችና ኃላፊዎች ስም ዝርዝር በጥናቱ ተካትቷል።

ከሃገሪቱ ሕዝብ አራት እጅ የሆኑት የትግራይ ተወላጆች 70 እጅ የሆነውን የመከላከያ ሰራዊት ተቆጣጥረው እና ሌላውን ወገን አፍነው ይዘው ስለ ብሄር መብት የመናገር ሞራል ሊኖራቸው አይችልም።



Re: Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby Dawi » 03 Jan 2018, 01:08


I understand being emotional by the huge expulsion but, Abdi has shown regret in public, we should take his words for it in my view.

My take is a “majority democracy” empowers the "majority" of a country.

If we take South Africa, it empowers Black Africans since they are the majority of the population. That off course is only if ANC stays in power. If this community divides itself into “ethnic groups”, ANC loses power, meaning no majority power.

Oromo being the majority and claiming Ethiopia can’t lose by embracing Abdi Ali/Ethiopian Somali and taking him/them by his/their words.

It is just like him bringing his party to be part of ANC, instead of (Xhosa, Zulu, Tswana, etc) by bringing him in an “Ethiopia First” coalition fold, where Amara is already included; it is a reasonable thing to do and the rest will follow.

Oromo has the capacity and the strength to be magnanimous in light of the wrong doing that took place in Ethiopia Somali region.

Furthermore, Lema and Gedu are part of EPRDF; we cannot rule out the same political line existing within TPLF therefore, TPLF can be part of “Ethiopia First” as well and shorten the struggle of the Oromo youth who are paying the highest price as we speak.

gearhead wrote:Abdi elei is entitled to his ethiopianness identification sequence.what he cant do is, use this feigned symantheic sequence to justify and continue ethnic cleansing, that has been cajoled and co-implimented by TPLF generals.

The symantheic sequence is irrelevant when Abdi Ellei committed the unethiopian act of deporting 750k oromo ethiopians from somali region.

Abdi Eley is not even a human, along with ALL tracked he b!tches who are trying to portray him as one.



Re: Ethiopia At An Ominous Crossroads: Amb. Cohen

Postby sun » 03 Jan 2018, 19:41


Dawi wrote:
Amb. Cohen wrote:If the reports of the regime inciting cross border conflict between Somali and Oromo states are true, then it is clear that Ethiopia’s prospects for national reconciliation within a democratic dispensation are still a long way over the horizon.


Abdi Ali has said, he is an "Ethiopian First" and a "Somali second"; he went on to say, for one to say, I am a "Somali first" is wrong! Lemma has said "Ethiopia-WIN-ET" is hashish! I say, More power to them! 8)

Ethiopians should capitalize on these leaders statements.

What is key in the Crossroads then:

Preventing the armed forces from intervening in the political process; meaning, managing political chaos.

Not to be overambitious about political reforms to bring change at once.

Learn from Egypt, where sweeping reform create political turmoil and shall give the opportunity for the military to come back and take over. Not good.

The key is to take time not to bring instant "democracy" and resume squabbling as usual; who is going to be in charge while the normally divided opposition start arguing? We know they're only united to "bring Woyane down" today?

What about opposition leaving EPRDF aside and talking to each other now while we have a relative security? And see if they have what it takes to maintain stability throughout a future "transition"?

The key what made a transition work successful else where, like in S. Korean successful transition for instance, was, the slow DE politicization of the military; it wasn't about bringing quick democracy.

Cheers!


Actually you have good points. I agree with most of them. It seems that the nutritious organic Oromo Milk and Honey did help you to see issues in their proper realistic perspectives.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.” ~W. Ward 8)



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